MEMPHIS – (localmemphis.com) Ello! Welcome to Saturday/Saturday night/Sunday morning, whenever you happen to be reading this. Changes are on the way for our weather; some good, some bad, some ugly and some seasonable. We’ll sort it all out now since you’re paying attention. Our next cold front is hanging out in Arkansas right now sliding east. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are popping out ahead of it; this action is heading in our direction. We’ll see a gradual increase in cloudiness Saturday night and perhaps a couple raindrops the more west you are; plans are a go, you won’t get wet. Rain will approach after midnight starting in Arkansas before stretching east across the entire area by midday Sunday. This front is a weak one; there isn’t a ton of instability to fuel severe weather but you should still listen for thunder. Heavy rain is your biggest concern and even then it’ll come in isolated pockets. On average we’ll get between ½” to ¾” of an inch of rain; 1-2” in some of those heavier downpours. If you’re looking at this as a lawn thirst quencher don’t count on it, keep the hose ready. That said, it will likely wash out some plans; have plan B in place and umbrellas up. The front causing this mess will stick around through Monday before lifting north as a warm front. You care about that because it’ll leave a chance at showers in the forecast. A ridge of high pressure will dominate much of the rest of the work week meaning limited rain and warming temperatures. Our computer models continue to hint at a weak disturbance moving across the middle of the country by mid-week. If this happens it’ll leave a few storms in the afternoon for Wednesday and Thursday. There’s a bit of uncertainty here, as a result we left a small chance for rain; not a wash out but not completely dry either; stay tuned. Now for the juicy part of the forecast. If you watched our weather special you heard us talk much about the Mid-South secondary severe weather season. We may have our first brush with it by Friday and Saturday. Timing is still up in the air as well as strength, but the latest long term computer models put a vigorous cold front with storms in our backyard Saturday. That said, much can and will change between now and then. Needless to say and allow me to quote our watchdog Mike Matthews “I’ll be watching.”
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
-Meteorologist Sean Parker