NWS: Hard to Predict Spring's Severe Weather Season Forecast

NWS: Hard to Predict Spring's Severe Weather Season Forecast

Forecasters can use weather trends to help predict severe weather months down the road, but this year that is a challenge.
MEMPHIS, TN (abc24.com) - Warmer weather will arrive in the Mid-South this week. Storms are headed our way as well. National Weather Service forecasters say the pattern across the U.S. has made a shift since the holidays. More storm systems are impacting the west coast and will eventually arrive in the Mid-South.

The first round of severe weather this year is possible later this week. Ben Schott, National Weather Service, urges Mid-South residents to be prepared for stormy weather.

Severe weather in January and February is fairly common in the Mid-South. The same number of tornadoes that occur during this two-month period is the same number of tornadoes that occur in the Mid-South in the month of June. Twice as many tornadoes happen in the most common severe weather months, April and May. Forecasters can use weather trends to help predict severe weather months down the road, but this year that is a challenge.

“Trying to forecast anything beyond two weeks to get an idea of what severe weather will be like in the long term would be extremely difficult,” says Schott. “There is no El Nino or La Nina to say this is typically what happens in this pattern.”

Schott says one active month does not necessarily mean the following month will be as active. Even though it’s unclear how much severe weather will hit the Mid-South in the spring, long-range forecasts do expect warmer than normal temperatures and more rain.
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