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NBA MOCK DRAFT: Lottery simulation, where will Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith land?

With the NBA Draft Lottery happening Tuesday, we simulated a possible outcome and had our Locked On NBA podcast hosts around the country make selections!

CHICAGO — It is officially NBA Draft Lottery day as the first 14 picks in the 2022 NBA Draft will be decided with Tuesday night's annual lottery.

Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered one through 14, will be placed in a lottery machine. There will be four balls randomly drawn by NBA officials, and the four-number combination will be one of the 1,000 that are assigned to each of the 14 NBA Draft lottery slots based on their records during the 2021-22 season.

That combination on the first draw will reveal which team receives the number one overall pick in June’s NBA Draft, then that process will be repeated three more times to reveal the teams who select two through four. 

NBA Draft Lottery LIVE STREAM

On Tuesday night beginning at 8 p.m. E.T. on the Locked On NBA YouTube channel, our local podcast hosts for NBA Draft Lottery teams will be streaming their live reactions to how the lottery plays out. 

Join us at the Locked On NBA YouTube channel for one-of-kind lottery coverage tonight!

Credit: Locked On Podcast Network

Odds to get the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery

1. Houston Rockets, 14%

2. Orlando Magic, 14%

3. Detroit Pistons, 14%

4. Oklahoma City Thunder, 12.5%

5. Indiana Pacers, 10.5%

6. Portland Trail Blazers, 9%

7. Sacramento Kings, 7.5%

8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers), 6%

9. San Antonio Spurs, 4.5%

10. Washington Wizards, 3%

11. New York Knicks, 2%

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers), 1.5%

13. Charlotte Hornets, 1%

14. Cleveland Cavaliers, 0.5%

Lottery simulation

We went to Tankathon.com to get a simulation of how the lottery could play out. We took that scenario and sent it to our Locked On NBA local hosts around the country and had them perform a mock draft based on the simulation with each local host making the pick for the team they cover.

Here’s how our Tankathon simulation played out:

1. Orlando Magic

2. Oklahoma Ciy Thunder

3. Houston Rockets

4. Detroit Pistons

5. Indiana Pacers

6. Portland Trail Blazers

7. Sacramento Kings

8. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)

9. San Antonio Spurs

10. Washington Wizards

11. New York Knicks

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)

13. Charlotte Hornets

14. Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA Lottery Mock Draft Selections

1. Orlando Magic - Paolo Banchero, F, Duke

Philip Rossman-Reich, Locked On Magic podcast: “The reason the magic take Paolo Banchero is quite simple. They need a guy who can create his own shot and be a primary scorer. They’ve got a lot of good secondary players, they’ve got a lot of really good young talent, but they need a guy they can form it around.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder - Jabari Smith, F, Auburn

Rylan Stiles, Locked On Thunder podcast: “My best player on my big board is Jabari Smith. This pick was between him and Chet Holmgren. But Jabari Smith can fit seamlessly alongside Josh Giddey and Shea Gilgeous-Alexander with his three and D potential. 

3. Houston Rockets - Chet Holmgren, F/C, Gonzaga

Jackson Gatlin, Locked On Rockets podcast: “The Rockets can’t go wrong with any of the top three big man prospects. Being third on the board isn’t as good as being one but being able to get Chet Holmgren is a huge win for this Rockets team. He has size, he has shooting and he has potential to be the No. 1 player coming out of this draft.”

4. Detroit Pistons - Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky

Ku Khahil, Locked On Pistons podcast: “I feel like Sharpe right now is one of the more interesting prospects in the entire draft. He did not play a single game of college basketball, but despite this, the 19-year-old has risen up a bunch of draft boards, drawing comparisons to Paul George, Bradley Beal and Jalen Green. Any type of player like that would fit well next to Cade Cunningham if they miss out on one of the top three big men.”

5. Indiana Pacers - Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue

Tony East, Locked On Pacers podcast: “Ivey’s a really good fit for what the Pacers have and need. They really just need talent at this point after having won just 25 games, their third worse season ever. A speedy guard who can dominate the game when Tyrese Haliburton is floating off the ball or out of the game is just a really good fit for this Pacers team.

6. Portland Trail Blazers - Keegan Murray, F, Iowa

Mike Richman, Locked On Blazers podcast: “Keegan Murray seems like a pretty darn good outcome here. One of the most productive players in college basketball last season, fits a position of need on a team desperate for forwards. Murray can help right away and has major upside to be a part of the future.

7. Sacramento Kings - AJ Griffin, G, Duke

Matt George, Locked On Kings podcast: “If I had the ability to trade this pick I would. But, if the Kings do end up at 7, don’t be surprised at all if they move on from this pick. The Kings are looking for immediate impact players. While I like the upside of AJ Griffin, he fits a need for the Kings and his potential as a defender and shooter, but can you expect him to be an immediate impact player that can get the Kings into the playoffs? That’s the expectation for this team as early as next year. But, AJ Griffin would not be a bad player for this team to get at No. 7.”

8. New Orleans Pelicans - Bennedict Mathurin, G/F, Arizona

Jake Madison, Locked On Pelicans podcast: “With Zion Williamson healthy next season, the starting lineup and first guys off the bench are set for the Pelicans, which means they can go in any direction with the eighth pick. At this spot in the draft, Mathurin is the perfect mix of best player available with high upside.”

9. San Antonio Spurs - Jalen Duren, PF/C, Memphis

Jeff Garcia, Locked On Spurs podcast: “He’s exactly what the Spurs need to address their biggest offseason need and that’s size. After Jakob Poeltl, the big man depth chart for the Spurs is very weak. 6-foot-11, 250 pounds is exactly what the Spurs need to counter the modern centers in today’s NBA.”

10. Washington Wizards - Malaki Branham, G/F, Ohio State

Ed Oliver, Locked On Wizards podcast: “Great player, 6-foot-5, freshman. Was Big Ten freshman of the year, All-Big 10. Went to St. Vincent–St. Mary High School, from Columbus, we all know who else went to that high school. The Wizards need talent, this guy averaged 13 points per game, 49% from the field, 41% from the three point line and 83% from the free throw line. He’s athletic, can get to the rim, he’s a slasher and great finisher. 

11. New York Knicks - Dyson Daniels, G, G League Ignite

Alex Wolfe, Locked On Knicks podcast: “We were ecstatic to get this pick and be able to take Daniels. The Knicks really just need a player like him. We think he’ll fit in great in between Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett. He’s long, great defender, he can attack the basket some, the shot is a little bit of a work in progress. But, he’s got ideal NBA size at 6-foot-8, 6-foot-11 wingspan with very legit guard skills.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder - Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor

Rylan Stiles, Locked On Thunder podcast: “Sochan is likely the best defender in this draft class. At this pick, the Thunder probably would’ve hoped Jalen Duren would fall to them. But given the circumstances, Jeremy Sochan is a really nice option to create roster versatility for the Thunder who need to improve defensively and at the three point line.”

13. Charlotte Hornets - Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin

Walker Mehl, Locked On Hornets podcast: “We had an interesting decision to make with the Hornets having the 13th and 15th picks. I wanted to go with the best center, it’s a huge need. But co-host Doug Branson texted me with an interesting scenario when it got to our pick.”

Doug Branson, Locked On Hornets podcast: “I saw Johnny Davis sitting there available because a few teams above us may have reached a little. Johnny Davis is a player that I think in the long term would really complement LaMelo Ball well because he can defend, he’s long, athletic and I think Davis would be a perfect two-guard next to Ball long term.”

14. Cleveland Cavaliers - Ochai Agbaji, G/F, Kansas

Chris Manning, Locked On Cavaliers podcast: “Agbaji, this year’s Final Four most outstanding player fits a real need for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They need wings who can shoot, they need wings who can provide support for Darius Garland, for Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. There’s perhaps no player that fits that three and D mold more at this point in the draft than Agbaji.”

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